Bowl Precap, Part 2

We're into the second part of the bowl precap, and it is the part of the show with almost all of the biggest games. And at this point in the bowl season (Dec. 23), I have yet to make a correct prediction. That is about par for the course with me, as I did not get a bowl game right last year until the Hawai'i Bowl. Thanks, Notre Dame!

I could wait until it is closer to January 1 and see how the rest of the games play out, but that wouldn't be nearly as much fun as going in mostly blind on these games. Half the fun of reading predictions is finding out how wrong they were. Let's see how much fun you have this bowl seaon!

Outback Bowl

Northwestern vs. Auburn, Jan. 1

The Big Ten has not been awful in this bowl. I think it probably has a lot to do with the fact that Wisconsin—which plays the sort of power game that the SEC is unfamiliar with—has been here several times and, even if they didn't win, they made the opposition work pretty hard to get their own win.

Northwestern should make a game of it and force Auburn to sweat it out. But I expect Auburn to execute better overall to pull out the victory.

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl, Jan. 1

Florida State vs. West Virginia

Earlier this year, I picked West Virginia to beat South Florida because I thought that West Virginia's offense would not find South Florida's speed-based defense as difficult to deal with as before. I said this because West Virginia had moved to more of a pro-style offense that did not play to South Florida's strengths. Then South Florida beat West Virginia. And I learned that West Virginia still has a lot to learn about playing speedy teams.

This is one of those situations where you see the game and you know that one team is better than the other. But then you look at the way the teams match up and you see a very different story. West Virginia does not do well against teams that trade in size for speed. Florida State enjoys doing exactly that. Yes, West Virginia is a better football team, but they struggle against exactly the sort of game that Florida State plays. Bobby Bowden takes one final bow before getting pushed out the door.

Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1

Penn State vs. LSU

Everyone is pointing to this game as a great matchup. I see a Penn State team that got walloped by the two good defenses they have played so far this year; that doesn't bode well against the third. Though LSU does not have a lot of offensive firepower, if you put the offense on the field enough times, I would think that something eventually has to go right. LSU wins.

Rose Bowl Presented by Citi

Ohio State vs. Oregon

I have actually already written about the Rose Bowl, so I will try to keep this short. Of all the games in the BCS, I would rate this one as the most likely to produce a blowout. I just don't know which team is more likely to blow out the other team.

When Oregon is on offense, I really don't know what to expect. They have not seen anything like Ohio State's defense, but Ohio State has not seen anything like Oregon's offense. Conversely, Oregon's defense has not seen anything like Ohio State's multiple-formation attack, but Ohio State has not played against a smallish, quick defense with better-quality players—and it is not as though Ohio State has been an offensive juggernaut this year.

Here's what I do know: Oregon will score a touchdown on their first possession. If Ohio State can force Oregon to stretch that drive out to 10-12 plays, I think Ohio State is in very good shape. If Oregon gets a touchdown in 4 plays or less, I think Oregon is in very good shape. I may be guilty of boosterism here (I reiterate that I have made no secret of my Ohio State fandom), but I'm thinking Ohio State lines up pretty well against Oregon. I hate picking Ohio State in big games, but that's exactly what I'm going to do.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Florida vs. Cincinnati

I have also already written about the Sugar Bowl. Honestly, there's not much more I can add at this point. Cincinnati has a very good offense that is centered around a smart, accurate quarterback. If my recollections are correct from the Pittsburgh game, it seemed like they often relied on slow-developing routes. If Tony Pike stays upright, he can and will pick apart Florida's secondary. If he is being rushed and hit in the pocket early, that means that his receivers won't have time to finish their routes and get open.

However, even if Florida gets up big on Cincinnati, they'd better not fall asleep on them, because Cincinnati can score fast, fast, fast. An early lead means nothing against the Bearcats. In fact, I'd say that the worst situation Florida can be in is having a lead of 21. At 14 to 17 points, Florida will know that Cincinnati is still in the game. At 21 points, the Gators might ease up. The dead last thing you want to do with a lead against this year's Cincinnati team is to take your foot off the gas, because there is not another team out there that can score at the rate Cincinnati can.

On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati is not exactly a dominant defense. And now they are playing one of the best offenses in the country. However, Florida may be suffering a hangover following their loss to Alabama. This team was ready to become legends and do something a Gator team has never done before: finish the season undefeated. Now they didn't even win their own conference. That may take its toll on their psyches, even as the seniors are also starting to look ahead to their NFL careers.

With all that said, I have to say that Florida is the pick to make in this game. Florida is more complete on both sides of the ball, they can and should be able to collapse the pocket on Tony Pike, they play a different style of offense than most teams, and they run that offense both differently and far better than anyone Cincinnati has seen this year.

International Bowl, Jan. 2

South Florida vs. Northern Illinois

I'm rather looking forward to hearing how South Florida players deal with a winter week in Toronto. I think there are going to be a lot of funny stories coming out of the Bulls by January 2. And if this game were being held outdoors, I would take Northern Illinois in this game. But it's not. It's in a dome. South Florida wins.

Papajohns.com Bowl, Jan. 2

South Carolina vs. Connecticut

Man alive, I wish I knew anything about either of these teams. South Carolina has done their usual job of underwhelming everyone, and Connecticut is continuing their tradition of being better than average, but nothing remarkable. So let's pick them in alphabetical order. Connecticut, whoo!

AT&T Cotton Bowl, Jan. 2

Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss

So who in this game is more disappointed? Oklahoma State following a season of losses in their most important games, Ole Miss following a mid to late-season swoon, or Cotton Bowl officials, who still can't get their game into the BCS?

This is a tough game to handicap because both teams are coming in disappointed. Oklahoma State's season fell apart almost as soon as it got started, when they followed a win over Georgia with a loss to Houston, then closed the season with a loss to Oklahoma that pushed them out of BCS contention. Meanwhile, Ole Miss was a pre-season top-10 team that rose to #5 before dropping off the pace with a loss to South Carolina, then doing nothing interesting the rest of the season. So it seems that everyone involved in this game is disappointed with being left out of the BCS.

Anyway, as for this game, I think Ole Miss has had more time to adjust to the fact that their pre-season expectations went down the crapper. I'll go with Ole Miss.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Jan. 2

East Carolina vs. Arkansas

If East Carolina could handle Houston's offense, I'm guessing they can manage Arkansas's. East Carolina Pirates... arrrrrggggghhhh!

Valero Alamo Bowl, Jan. 2

Michigan State vs. Texas Tech

Let's see, do I pick a team that finished 8-4 in the Big XII South, or the team that finished 6-6 in the Big Ten and has suspended several starters as a disciplinary measure? Heh, heh, Texas Tech... by a lot.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 4

Boise State vs. TCU

Again, I did a preview of this game. I'm not sure who is going to win, but I'm pretty sure that this one is gonna be sweet.

As I said earlier, both teams boast productive offenses and tough defenses. Both play in not-quite top conferences, but they play some pretty good teams through the year. Both teams have survived their schedules to post an undefeated season. Both teams picked the wrong year to do that, with three BCS teams also going undefeated.

These two teams fought it out last year in the Poinsettia Bowl, and now they get one more crack at each other on the main stage. I'm getting fired up just thinking about it.

Anyway, I think TCU may be more talented than Boise State. But I also think that Boise State lives for this kind of thing. I'll take Boise State to win on their usual combination of sound fundamentals, excellent game planning, and lunatic audacity.

FedEx Orange, Jan. 5

Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

Once more, I have already done a preview of this game.

The entire key to this game is whether Georgia Tech can get their offense rolling. When the triple option is working, it is an impressive thing to watch. If it is not working, there is not much that can be done to fix it. This pony ain't going to learn new tricks.

But with that said, the triple option is very difficult to defend if you are not familiar with it. Iowa is not familiar with it. They will probably find themselves down by a lot early. If the rest of the season was any indication, they will make a late charge. I'm guessing they won't have enough time to finish the comeback. Georgia Tech wins.

GMAC Bowl, Jan. 6

Central Michigan vs. Troy

Is it just me, or does it seem like Troy plays in this bowl every year? And I seem to remember that the MAC school who goes to this bowl always gets the crap kicked out of them too, don't they? Seems like a team that just had almost its whole coaching staff replaced in the last couple of weeks might not be the ones to change that. Troy wins the GMAC Bowl. Again.

Citi BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 7

Texas vs. Alabama

And finally, I wrote a preview of this game already. But I'll add a little more.

Texas should win this game. Here's why:

One, Heisman hangover. Alabama's best player, Mark Ingram, has a lot of responsibilities as the Heisman Trophy winner. He is required to go to dinners, he is required to make speeches, he has to go to his old high school, his hometown, all sorts of Alabama alumni clubs, and an abundance of places like that, because he is the Heisman Trophy winner. There isn't a bigger honor in sports. And that means that he is everyplace other than where he should be: practicing with his team and working out to make sure he is ready for the biggest game of his life. One would expect that he will be out of tune with the rest of his teammates after that much time away from them.

Two, Texas plays in a league that plays a lot more big-man football than the SEC, so I would expect that they could hold their own against Alabama at the line of scrimmage. Alabama's offense is predicated on setting up the pass with the run by lining up a bunch of big men and ramming the ball down the other team's throats. If the run isn't working, the pass won't be set up, meaning that the offense won't work properly. I think Texas can make that happen.

Three, Colt McCoy can unlock his door from 40 yards by putting his key on the end of a football and throwing it into the keyhole. He's the most accurate quarterback around, he makes excellent decisions, and you should never, ever count out a team with a smart, accurate quarterback—with a surprisingly fast set of wheels to boot—who the rest of the team looks up to.

Here's why Texas won't win the game:

Their receivers can't catch. Colt McCoy can thread the ball to his receivers as much as he wants, it doesn't mean that they are going to catch it. In all the games I've seen from Texas this year, his receivers have had cases of the drops. Aside from Jordan Shipley, there isn't a pass catcher in burnt orange that I would want to throw a football to if the game depended on it. And at this level, the game depends on every pass. Alabama will cover the heck out of the Longhorn receivers and it will not be easy to sneak throws into them, which means completions will be at a premium. Dropped passes will kill drives. Dead drives mean the opposing team gets the ball back that much sooner. The sooner you give the ball back to a power team like Alabama, the more they will wear down your defense. The more they wear down your defense, the longer your offense is off the field and not able to score the points necessary to recover from the points the other team will start putting up by the bunches.

If I get every other game wrong in my bowl predictions (and I'm on pace to do that), this is the only one I would kick myself for. Because, in my mind, the preponderance of evidence points to Texas winning this game. But that's not the pick I'm going to make, because I just don't have faith in Texas's receivers. Alabama wins the national title.