BCS Conference Predictions

Egad, I find myself at the very doorstep of the season, and I have not done any conference predictions? Yikes, I need to get my hindquarters in gear! Half the fun of writing a college football column is making these sorts of predictions and I don't want to miss out!

Unfortunately, these are going to be on the short side, as the regular-guy job has and will be hectic. So I need to squeeze these out in some spare time I don't have.

ACC

Everyone's favorite whipping boy as of late, the ACC has not become the galactic superconference that many predicted. Instead, it has been come a muddled mess of mediocrity that has confounded all plan and prediction. What I do know is that, when the assembled the 12-team ACC, there was nothing in their plan that intended for Wake Forest to be one of their best teams. However, muddled situations like this have a tendency to settle out at some point. I just wonder who is going to be the cream sitting on top of the curds in ten years or so.

Atlantic Division

1. Florida State - I think the Seminoles will have some extra motivation this year, what with their coach possibly losing several wins due to some NCAA infractions. The last few years, it seemed like they had a good collection of talent, but they also seemed to be missing some important pieces that cost them. I'll gamble on them this year. Particularly since I don't see anybody else in the ACC who even gives me that good of a feeling.
2. Wake Forest - They don't play with a lot of flash, but the Demon Deacons get the job done routinely. They are well-coached and disciplined. And they play a tough brand of defense that keeps them in games. Sounds like a winning recipe to me.
3. Boston College - Somebody's got to be third in the Atlantic division. Why not Boston College?
4. Clemson - I suppose I could have gone with Clemson in the third slot, but last year's catastrophe put me off the Tigers.
5. Maryland - Maryland is one of those teams that seems like it should be better than it is. But it's not, so here they are.
6. North Carolina State - I have yet to understand why Tom O'Brien took a lateral move to North Carolina State, which was in much worse shape than the Boston College team that he left. Something to do with recruiting speed, I believe. Which didn't make a bit of sense, considering that most of the best players have a lot of other, better choices in the region before they get to what may be, at best, the third-best-known school in the state of North Carolina.

Coastal Division

1. Virginia Tech - I know they lost their tailback for the season, but it's not like offense was Virginia Tech's forte. They are going to win with defense, special teams, and an offense that will, hopefully, not be a liability.
2. North Carolina - I saw them a bit last year and I generally liked what I saw: some raw talent that needed smoothing out. I think they smooth some wrinkles this year and show some improvement.
3. Georgia Tech - The thing about the triple option is that it is very, very confusing for teams who don't play against it very much. The thing about that is that conference teams play it every year and start learning it. And it sounds like a lot of teams that played Georgia Tech were very, very pissed off at their blocking methods -- which seem to involve diving at the knees of defensive linemen.
4. Virginia - Virginia is another of those teams that seems like it should be better than it is. But it's not. But I still have more faith in them than Miami.
5. Miami (FL) - Lately, Miami has been doing a lot of things that have given me pause and concern. And now they are bleeding players, which happen to be very important requirements for football teams who want to be competitive. It's hard to tell if Randy Shannon has this program moving in the right direction, because it's hard to tell if it's moving or treading water.
6. Duke - When 4-8 is your best season in recent memory, it's hard to be optimistic.

Champion

Florida State

Big East

If there is any BCS conference that can make the ACC feel better, it is the Big East. They have always skated on that edge of justification for inclusion in the BCS, and their up-and-down tendencies make it that much harder for them. They have turned out excellent teams like West Virginia from 2005-2007, and they have turned out some clunkers like Syracuse in 1998. Their 2006 season was a high point, with a host of excellent teams fighting for supremacy. But last year was a disappointment, as many teams fell off the pace and the often-overlooked Cincinnati Bearcats became the flag bearers. I have the feeling that the Big East will have to endure a couple more years of "Big Least" jokes before the Big East pushes toward the top again.

1. South Florida - As I said earlier, they have been on the verge, they just need some depth to keep themselves on top. You need depth to survive a 12-game schedule, as those nicks and bumps and bruises and general leg-weariness adds up over time. South Florida has risen high, but haven't been able to hold on; that sounds like a lack of depth to me. I think they'll have the depth they need this year. If the last few years have not allowed them to recruit the depth they need, then I don't know that they ever will.
2. Connecticut - I don't exactly know why, but I like Connecticut. Okay, I know a few reasons why I like them: they play solid defense and a no-nonsense brand of football that, as ugly as it may be compared to some flashier teams, also wins a lot of games. I think they are going to stick around for a while.
3. Cincinnati - They may not be a very trendy pick to land high on the final standings, but they play solid football and they match up very well against some teams in the Big East. I think they aren't going to do quite as well, but they are still going to hang around. And I actually had them at #2, until I remembered that they open their season at Rutgers, which is a team they would have a better chance against if they had a chance to get settled on defense prior to facing a major league rival.
4. Rutgers - I know the Scarlet Knights are a trendy pick right now, but I just don't see it. If they can get another bruising back and a better passing game, then I'll go back in for them. But I don't see a long-term offensive identity for this team right now.
5. West Virginia - Let's see, West Virginia just lost the best quarterback they ever had, they are switching to more of a pro-style offense, and they have a newish coach that is still getting his feet wet. 5th place in the conference is lower than I would like for them, but the season is not setting up well.
6. Pittsburgh - Dave Wannstedt continually finds new ways to disappoint people. I expect him to come through again this year.
7. Louisville - Sorry, I just don't see much joy in Louisville. They tend to come and go quite a bit, and I expect them to return. Just not this year.
8. Syracuse - Regardless of whether Marrone can turn this team around, teams don't go 3-9 in last year's Big East when they have a lot of talent waiting in the wings.

Big Ten

Just when you thought you could get done making fun of people, you get to the Big Ten. There was some improvement in the lower sections of the conference last year, but that doesn't mean the surf is up in the Midwest. It just means that the top teams had better watch where they step, because there are some landmines on the schedule. And that's the thing about landmines: they pop up in the most unexpected places.

1. Penn State - I know that Penn State lost a lot of talent from last year's team, but they get Ohio State at home this year. Home field advantage has meant a lot for these two teams since the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten, so they hae a huge advantage there. And it will, as always, be a night game, which will make things difficult for the Buckeyes if it is a close game... as it usually is.
2. Ohio State - I also know that Ohio State is the pretty-well unanimous pick for first place in the Big Ten, but they have a couple of issues. First is the fact that they have Penn State and Michigan on the road. Second is that Michigan is still a rivalry game, and Michigan should be better than last year (one would hope that they would be). Third is the fact that Ohio State is the team to beat this year in the Big Ten, so every team on their schedule has been keying on them through the entire offseason. That is the one that got circled on everyone's calendar, and the Big Ten's lower portions improved last year. They have a lot of work ahead of them.
3. Michigan State - I know that the Spartans lost some key players from last year's team. But Michigan State did not play a style of football that required tremendous talent at the skill positions. It wasn't explosive, but it was solid and can survive some player turnover.
4. Iowa - I know Iowa is the trendy sleeper pick, but I don't see it. They played a lights-out game against Penn State last year, but I didn't see a burgeoning power ready to explode on the scene. Solid, but not quite ready for prime time, in my estimation.
5. Northwestern - I know that Northwestern is expected to be somewhere in the middle of the pack, but I agree.
6. Michigan - I'll say this once, then hold my peace: the Wolverines must get the ball to Brandon Minor. Forget the scatbacks and shifty quarterbacks, Minor is a badass with explosive potential, and he is the key to their season.
7. Illinois - Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn are very impressive. After that, I don't see a whole let else to get excited about. The linebacking corp was unremarkable last year and they need a running back who take the pressure off of Williams. Which means that they are in for a rough one.
8. Wisconsin - I remember watching the Wisconsin-Ohio State game last year and thinking that if Wisconsin just kept slamming the ball straight ahead, they would beat Ohio State. When they didn't do that, I remember thinking that, if Barry Alvarez was the coach, they would have kept slamming the ball straight ahead and beat Ohio State. He isn't, they didn't, and they lost. I don't see any reason to expect a change in philosophy this year.
9. Purdue - I expect them to get to a bowl game in Danny Hope's first season. But not much else.
10. Minnesota - Minnesota's chances at a bowl game, however, may depend on their ability to beat Syracuse in the opener. Regardless of the outcome of that game, that should give you an idea of my opinion of their chances this year.
11. Indiana - "Your team so bad, if it was in the Big Ten, it would finish eleventh." Except that it really is in the Big Ten. And the Hoosiers will finish eleventh. And they really are that bad.

Big XII

North

1. Kansas - Todd Reesing has impressed me with his abilities, but their defense gives me a bad taste in my mouth. But I think they are the best in the North, so I'll pick them for the Big XII title game.
2. Nebraska - They have backbone. Unfortunately, they need some other bones and some muscle on that frame before they can run with the big boys.
3. Colorado - Dan Hawkins said "10 wins and no excuses". I foresee 8 wins for perfectly sound reasons.
4. Kansas State - I think Bill Snyder is ruining an excellent legacy by returning. But I think he will get his second tenure off to a non-awful start.
5. Missouri - The ACC isn't the only conference with teams that seem like they should be better than they are. I'm still a big Pinkel fan, but Missouri isn't the sort of school that can replace Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin.
6. Iowa State - Gene Chizik or no Gene Chizik, nobody wins in Ames.

South

1. Texas - I have my concerns about Texas and their absolute reliance on Colt McCoy for all of their offense. Mostly because their running game relies on his legs as much as their passing game relies on his arm; that means a lot of hits on one guy. With that said, I don't recall ever seeing a quarterback as accurate as Colt McCoy last year and I loved watching him play. Had his receivers been able to catch in the game against Texas Tech, McCoy would have carried his Heisman to the national title game. But they didn't and he didn't either. The Longhorns have an easier schedule this year, though so I think that Texas should be able to push through to the Big XII title game.
2. Oklahoma - The problem with using the ordered list format in HTML is that it doesn't allow me to clearly show ties. I think Oklahoma will tie somebody for something, but I'm not sure which spot that will be. They will either tie Texas for first, or they will tie Oklahoma State for second. My instincts are screaming that it will be a tie for first, because of my misgivings about the McCoy-based running game for Texas. But Texas would still get to the title game, based on my expectation of their head-to-head win, so the Sooners get the #2 spot.
3. Oklahoma State - 10 wins and third place in the division. What's a Cowboy got to do to catch a break around here?
4. Texas Tech - Opportunities like last year's don't come along very often. Neither do players like Michael Crabtree. Lubbock will think back longingly on both.
5. Baylor - They might actually be a decent football team. But they're Baylor, so that's not the way to bet. At least Texas A&M is there to make them feel better.
6. Texas A&M - Mike Sherman is still a bozo.

Champion

Texas

PAC-10

1. USC - Sure there are reasons to pick another team for first place. But who? And what indication do I have that this year will be any different than the previous years when USC has lost half of their team and still gone on to win the conference?
2. Oregon State - They just keep levitating up near the top of the PAC-10 standings. And I don't see a compelling case for anybody else, so I'll take the Beavers for second.
3. Oregon - I like the Ducks, but I have concerns about an offense that requires a quarterback to take so much pounding at such quick intervals. I think that makes it hard to win in November.
4. Arizona State - This is a bet based on Dennis Erickson as much as any other reason. I'm assuming that last year was an aberration. We'll see.
5. California - Sorry, I'm just not buying it. The Bears were fairly pedestrian last season, why would they be ready to challenge USC this season? One running back does not win the PAC-10.
6. UCLA - I gambled on the Neuheisel magic last season, not realizing that the team stunk. I'll assume that things haven't changed that much.
7. Stanford - I rolled the dice on Stanford last season, but didn't do very well on that bet. They improved, but not quite as much as expected.
8. Washington - Yes, I'm expecting Washington to really go shooting up the rankings, aren't I? Considering last year, 8th place actually is shooting up the rankings for Washington.
9. Arizona - Woo-hoo! 7-6, with a win in the Las Vegas Bowl! Good times are here again in Arizona! For Mike Stoops' sake, I hope that contract extension has a healthy buyout clause.
10. Washington State - Gonna be another long season in Pullman.

SEC

East

1. Florida - I have mentioned my misgivings about any offense that relies so much on the quarterback to run the ball all the time. But Tebow is the kind of quarterback you need for that sort of offense: very big and very durable. I know a lot of people don't like him because of all the success he's had, but he's a good kid who happens to play football with a competitive streak a mile wide, and he plays it in a system that utilizes exactly what he brings to the game.
2. Georgia - Admittedly, I have a tendency to rank Georgia too high every year, for reasons that are a mystery even to me. But after last year's injury-plagued disaster of a season, I don't see why they shouldn't be much better this year. The rest of the division is pretty weak, and I did not consider either Stafford or Moreno to be the end-all, be-all players they were said to be. I think with new players stepping into leadership roles and more players feeling like they need to do more for the team, the Bulldogs should be in a better position this year than they were last year.
3. South Carolina - Hey, third place in the division is very respectable for South Carolina. Stever Spurrier and Gamecocks fans will disagree with that assessment, however.
4. Kentucky - I know I'm going a little overboard here, but I just have that much confidence in two other two teams in the SEC East to be worse than Kentucky. I watched them a bit last season and I was impressed with their solid work in the trenches -- they could pull off a stunner this year.
5. Vanderbilt - Considering how well they started last season, and how close they came to still missing a bowl game, I don't think I'm being negative here.
6. Tennessee - Name a Volunteer other than Eric Berry. No, Lane Kiffin doesn't count. Neither does Pat Summitt.

West

1. Alabama - Yes, Alabama lost a lot of key players from last year's team, but I don't think future generations of Alabamians will be composing epic poetry and singing songs of praise upon the legends of John Parker Wilson and Glen Coffee. They were better than adequate in a system that relied mostly on beating the holy hell out of the team on the other side of the ball. Alabama's only limit last year was their depth, which only became a problem late in games and late in the season, when all those hits have added up. They are still strong and will still beat the holy hell out of the team on the other side of the ball.
2. Ole Miss - I'd love to jump on board the Rebel bandwagon, but I don't see this one either. They did well last year, but they had the element of surprise. Nobody expected Ole Miss to be good last year. Now they are, so they are going to get everyone's best shot, rather than a second thought.
3. Arkansas - Things should improve in Petrino's second year in Fayetteville. Or so I think anyway.
4. LSU - LSU is getting a lot of preseason accolades, but I wasn't as impressed. It wasn't until the bowl game that they seem to have found a quarterback, but it's not like other teams couldn't score on Georgia Tech. I think they will still have QB problems this year and that will cost them.
5. Auburn - If they can solve the power outage at Auburn, then good for them. But I'm not betting on them to light up the scoreboard this year.
6. Mississippi State - Do I really need to explain this?

Champion

Florida

Other Conferences

I'd love to give my take on other conference races, but I'm on a deadline here.