National Title Rundown

About this point in the season, I like to put together a midseason rundown of the national title contenders in college football. Most seasons, this is actually a pretty useful exercise, since there are usually a lot of people freaking out about the possibilities of the national scene. However, the title race is pretty clear-cut at this point of this season. But this does bear more examining, as there are some teams that should be examined that seem to be way on the outside, but are still in it.

Let's look at each team in turn, as well as an analysis of each team's chances:

Win and You're In

• Florida - Preseason #1. Still on a roll. Showing some weaknesses in their offense, but the defense is going to keep them in every game. It's a pretty clear shot for them until the SEC championship game, but the teams coming up are talented and should not be taken lightly. If they keep from getting complacent, they should be just fine.
• Alabama - Still very dangerous, but I still wonder about their depth. Even if they have all their starters playing every down every week, the schedule is rough through the rest of the season and those bumps and nicks and bruises and twists and aches and soreness take their toll on a team that plays so much smashmouth. Their starters may need some time to get themselves rested and refreshed for that final push through the SEC West, before they run headlong into (one would assume) a Florida team that will be ready and happy to hit back.
• Texas - They may not have been as overpowering as they were last year, but they are still going to be the #2 team if they win out. Their defense is better than it was last year, though; that should keep them going. However, there are still roadblocks, including a Jekyll & Hyde Texas A&M team that could easily catch fire at just the right or wrong time, depending on which team you root for.

Ready to Pounce

There are a few teams sitting in a good position right now, and will be next up in line if two teams above them slip up before the bowls. Let's look at the most likely BCS Championship Game contenders, in the pecking order:

1. TCU - TCU is a fascinating case. They played a pretty decent out-of-conference schedule and survived. They play in a conference that has a lot of respect this year, and they just slobberknocked what may be the second-best team in the Mountain West. They are ready to kick the door down if they get an opening.
2. Iowa - Whatever you may think about Iowa's narrow escapes, they have escaped every trap laid for them so far. Coaches respect the idea of "Just win, baby," and if Iowa can survive the rest of their schedule unharmed, they probably will not be passed by anyone below them. However, they won't get as much respect as a Mountain West team for their conference schedule, which tells you a lot about what people think of both the Mountain West and the Big Ten right now.
3. Cincinnati - Look, as good as the Big East has been in previous years, Cincinnati has two things going against them: First, they play in the Big East; second, they are Cincinnati. I'd love to give you a better reason than that, but the Bearcats have not built much of a track record through their history, and this sport likes teams that it is familiar with. The reasons for this are dicey, but not entirely unwarranted (for reasons that are too long to describe right now). But this fact does tend to frustrate teams (and fans of those teams) that have suddenly popped their heads into the national picture. They have a slim chance of sliding by Iowa, but if Iowa can add Ohio State to a list of road wins that includes Penn State and Michigan State, I have trouble imagining that the Hawkeyes won't get the benefit of the doubt over Cincinnati. However, let's face it, Cincinnati still has West Virginia, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh coming up, so they should keep their minds on their games, rather than the number in front of their name.

Give Us a Hand Here!

Next up, we have several teams that are not in entirely bad positions, but lordy, they ain't good, neither. These teams will need a lot of help from all six teams above if they want to make it in. And they will need some help from each other, too. Again, let's look at them in the pecking order:

1. USC - Always a threat for the title game. Frequently find a way to keep themselves out of it. Honestly, they have not impressed this year as much as they have in previous years, but they are still USC and that name still carries a lot of weight. They beat Ohio State and Notre Dame on the road; despite what you may think about either or both teams, that is an impressive accomplishment not to be sneezed at. Neither is winning the Pac-10 with only one loss.
2. LSU - Among the forgotten teams in this whole thing is LSU. In case you forgot, they still only have one loss and they still have a game coming up against Alabama. If they can pull off a win there, they will have a lot of benefit of the doubt. While they have not particularly impressed, they are still hanging on the periphery and they will have a lot of nice things said about them if they beat Alabama. However, their loss to Florida means that they probably can't pass a one-loss USC. They would have to administer a serious beat-down to Alabama to make that happen. And then I would only give them a 60-40 chance of passing the Trojans, since people are starting to ask questions about the offenses of Alabama and Florida.
3. Oregon - I'm sure someone out there is saying, "Wait a second, what about..." but no, don't worry, I'll get to that soon. Right now, let's look at the facts I am looking at. If Oregon beats USC, they are going to get a lot of cachet from that win. Beating USC is not easy, as Ohio State and Notre Dame can attest, as can every Pac-10 team who has played USC in about the last decade. If Oregon pulls that off, they will have about as much of a name this year as if they were USC. However, I still maintain my reservations about their offensive scheme, which has a bad tendency to lose steam late in the season. If they beat USC, they will still face a very difficult task. But in a toss-up between LSU and Oregon, the O does not get the square for the block.
4. Boise State - "Hey, what the..." I said we'd get to it. Like it or not, Boise State's win over Oregon might as well have happened in 1934 by this point in the season. If you read everything that people are saying in reference to this game, it is usually along the lines of, "Oregon's meltdown against Boise State." Boise State kicked the snot out of Oregon from one blue end of the field to the other, but people are now essentially saying that Oregon accidentally lost a game, and Boise State just happened to be on the field when it happened. I'm not saying it's fair—it isn't, because Boise State was clearly better than Oregon in every phase of that game. But people are working overtime to point out that Boise State has not played a tough enough schedule. It stinks, but that's the way it will be, on the off chance that it comes down to a choice between the two teams.
5. Georgia Tech - Georgia Tech's biggest problem is that they play in the much-maligned ACC. However, they have a triple option offense that people love to talk about and admire, so they have small, but not-unconsiderable shot at getting to the title game if they win out. Unfortunately, they were so wildly outclassed by a two-loss Miami team that they need a lot of help to get into the top tier.
6. Pittsburgh - Oh yeah, the Panthers only have one loss, don't they? Yes, they do. And they still have a chance to knock off Cincinnati. But a one-loss Big East team actually has less of a name than Boise State. But they are a solid team that is putting together some good football, and they shouldn't be entirely discounted from the title race. Theirs is a slim chance, but it is a chance all the same.
7. Penn State - Honestly, this is a "Who are we kidding?" pick, but there are situations slightly less ridiculous than the implosion of the sun that would get Penn State to the national title game. But, on the off chance that Penn State does manage to get there, you should probably invest in a space heater. They play in the Big Ten and they don't have the sort of stylish offense that gets votes. Sorry, aside from name recognition, they have nothing going for them. Even if they beat Ohio State, they would do it at home... but that does not make up for losing at home to Iowa.

Not Going to Happen

Admittedly, there are a couple teams out there who also have a very slim chance. But if I were them, I would not be worried about the cost of airfare to California. You would need a thorough grounding in quantum theory to comprehend these teams' chances at getting the the title game.

1. West Virginia - Morgantown has returned to the back burner. Realistically, the best they can do is win the conference and get to a BCS bowl.
2. Oklahoma State - Even if they get by Texas and Oklahoma, that does not seem as impressive an accomplishment as a year ago. They won't have the traction to get into the race.
3. Houston - Remember what I said about Cincinnati and the Big East? Multiply that by 20 for a one-loss Conference USA team.

However, the one thing we should all remember most of all is that it is very, very, very rare for more than two teams to end the year undefeated. Many of these undefeated teams are going to be upset in the next few weeks, and many of the one-loss teams are going to add second losses that put them out of contention. Things are far from settled in this contest, so hang on to your hats and enjoy the show.