2009 Pre-Season Rankings

Ah, the preseason. Such a magical time of year. Every team is coming off of a great spring and ready to get ramped up for summer. Then, in the sweltering heat of August, every team is making great improvements that will pay big dividends once the season starts. And with those improvements, every team is ready to make that big step forward that will make this year something special. Every team is going to a bowl, at least half are winning the conference, and no fewer than about 20 teams are playing in the BCS National Title Game. There is nothing wrong at this time of year, and the season can't start soon enough. The only shame about it is that we all have to find out what a heaping load of hooey that is once September rolls around.

So, with that in mind, I think it is time for us to engage in that other, exciting load of hooey that we can also look forward to every preseason: preseason predictions! Yep, everyone has their opinions on what is going to happen this year and everyone's logic and expectation is unalterably correct. Until, of course, we find out how dead wrong all the predictions are, and we end up kicking ourselves for, once again, making or believing such unutterably stupid predictions. In fact, mine were so bad last year -- my first year of running this site -- that I decided to wipe the slate clean, pretend 2008 never existed, and start fresh in 2009.

No, I'm not putting a link to last year's articles on this page. Seriously, they were terrible. And not just the preseason predictions. My bowl predictions, in particular, are better consigned to oblivion; for example, I think I went almost two weeks of bowl season without getting a single game right.

But before we get to the rankings, we will once again start with an explanation of how we ended up with the list below.

#1

Key #1 for picking #1 is a rule that I have learned the hard way, frequently mentioned, and broken to my regret. And I will reiterate that rule once more, because it deserves repetition for anyone else who might be putting together a list of predictions. The rule to always follow when picking your #1 team is the following:

Don't pick anyone who will make you look stupid.

The only number in a preseason ranking that anybody really cares about is the one at the top. The #1 team is the name that gets the most splash out of any of them and everyone else is darn near invisible. Because, let's face it, the goal for every team in the rankings is to finish the year with a "1" next to their name. Everyone else is on the outside looking in.

So, when picking your #1 team in your predictions, pick someone who will keep you from looking stupid. That means that, if there is a team that everyone is picking for #1, pick that team at the top of your list. Even if you dead-sure positive that they will finish the season with four losses, pick them anyway. Because, if you do, then you can say that nobody saw this coming and you were just as suprised as everybody else. Which also means that you'll have boatloads of sportswriters helping you to cover your rear end on a bad pick. It's like having several hundred spin doctors in your employ. Which is pretty sweet.

Why not go with somebody else? Because everyone will think you're a moron if you pick somebody else. But even if you turn out to be right, then you are just a jerk who got lucky. So even if you win, you lose.

So, as I'm sure you have already guess, the #1 pick goes to Florida in a move that surprises nobody.

Last season was little more exciting in the preseason, as there was no clear-cut #1 to go with. I ignored my misgivings about a team that just lost its starting left tackle for the season when I took the bait and picked Georgia last season. However, at this point there is no such cause for concern regarding Florida this year, so I'd be an idiot not to take them.

The ACC

For the first time since its expansion to 12 teams, the most confusing thing about the ACC was not its divisional alignments. Last season was an enormous exercise in moderation, as every team in the league was moderately good and every team in the league could beat the other. Well... except Duke, but even they improved.

It got to the point that I starting picking against ACC teams simply because they were either ranked or had fewer losses than the team the other ACC team they were playing. I was invariably correct whenever I made a prediction on that basis. That's pretty sad when a bad method for picking a team gets reinforced by success.

I'm not expecting things to change a whole lot this year. However, I am expecting things to sort themselves out so that at least one truly solid team comes squirting out of the muck with a very good record and a top-10 ranking. I'm going with Florida State on this one, as they seem to have been on the verge and they are returning their entire offensive line. And I think they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to try to get back those 14 wins that their coach lost.

The SEC

Things are sorting themselves out in the SEC, as the return of Alabama means that the rest of the West, at the very least, goes back to the relative obscurity from whence it came. LSU and Auburn were happy to assist the Tide in this regard last year, and I see little reason why they won't give them a hand again this year. Mississippi should be as good or better this year, but they won't surprise anyone like they did last year -- that makes things tougher.

Out East, Florida is the class in that half. Their only significant offseason loss was Percy Harvin, and I think he was largely a product of the system. However, I rather expect Georgia to do okay this year. Mostly because if they can get a quarterback to complete 62% of his passes, he will be an improvement over the guy picked first in the entire draft last year. I'll admit I didn't see Knowshon Moreno much last year, but when I did see him, I never came away as awestruck as I was supposed to be. I think a healthy Bulldog offensive line this year (it can't be as bad as last year... can it?) will make up for any drop in backfield talent. And, honestly, I don't think the drop will be that great.

That is what I wrote before Georgia lost another offensive lineman for the season and Alabama dismissed four players for violations of team rules. That threw things into a tizzy and now I'm scrambling.

The Big East

No idea what to make of the Big East. West Virginia was a constant the last few years, though their change to more of a pro-style offense last season didn't play as well into Pat White's strengths. God bless that kid though: four winning starts in bowls... unbelievable. Anyway, the Mountaineers don't look likely to be the main men this year, so I need to come up with who it will be. Especially because any team in the Big East that can put everything together should be able to win a lot of games this year. There are a lot of decent teams in the Big East, but they all seem to have weaknesses.

Cincinnati may be a good bet, but it's hard to repeat when you are the team to beat. West Virginia is replacing the best quarterback in school history. I don't see Rutgers turning around a 140-year tradition of lackluster football all at once. Louisville is in the doldrums. South Florida has been on the verge, but routinely drops off the pace late due to a lack of depth. Connecticut is a mystery, but an intriguing one worth watching. Pittsburgh's recruiting classes have earned plaudits, but their performance on the field has not. Syracuse... on second thought, let's not talk about Syracuse.

I'll take South Florida to put together a complete season this year. If they have developed more depth, they should be able to make a breakthrough to get to the top 10 and actually stay there. But I don't see the Big East as providing a lot of teams in the top 25. Like the ACC last year, I think every team is going to end up with bad matchups in a few games against each other, which means that the pack will be keeping each other about even.

The Big Ten

With the drop Michigan made last year, it opened up a slot in the upper portion of the Big Ten. Michigan State took the opportunity and made a move up the list -- a move I had been unsuccessfully predicting for way too long. I expect that they will be able to hold fairly steady this year, but #3 in the Big Ten doesn't count for much these days.

I think Penn State should be able to keep their place at the top of the standings, since I like Darryl Clark and I think he should be able to take care of business against Ohio State at home. Ohio State's chances depend largely on their ability to develop their defense, though they may yet be okay on that side of the ball. Iowa is so up and down that it's impossible to guess how they will do in a given week, much less this year. Wisconsin is learning the hard way just how good a coach Barry Alvarez was. Minnesota is quickly doing the same in regard to Glen Mason. Who the heck knows how Michigan will do this year, though I would expect that they should be able to get to a bowl game at the very least. Illinois is also anybody's guess, but unless they find a running back and a middle linebacker, they won't do much of anything this year. Northwestern is on the rise, but have a long way to go. Purdue is okay and should be bowl eligible. Indiana, on the other hand, will not be playing 13 this year.

The Pac-10

It's USC and everybody else. I don't think Mark Sanchez will be missed all that much, because he was gone as soon as he showed up. USC plays a very disciplined, aggressive, well-executed brand of football that is remarkable for its ability to sweep aside big opponents in big games. The problem is that it is just as remarkable when it somehow ends up falling apart against some team the Trojans should annihilate. Their only consistent performance is an ability to lose just enough games at just the right time to end up just out of the BCS national championship game.

Oregon State had a big year, but fell short at the end. Oregon has been hanging around, but I still don't think their fast-paced offense is designed for a full season of football. Nobody else jumps out as a likely threat to make noise. Arizona State maybe, but last season has me wary of the Sun Devils. California had its chances and now they're probably back to their natural level. Arizona's just had their best season in about a decade... when they won the Las Vegas Bowl to finish 7-6. That is kind of embarrassing, when you get down to it.

Big XII

It's a II team race, and the other X are just there for the show. Texas and Oklahoma are the class of the conference, but there are some other teams to be reckoned with in the meantime. After all, the other X aren't going to be rolling over and playing dead.

Oklahoma lost a lot of key players, including much of their offensive line, so I think Texas is decidedly the I team to beat. Especially if Colt McCoy can stay healthy... that guy is amazing.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech make the VI in the South the better division, by far. Baylor and Texas A&M will do what they can to try to make the South look bad, but there is only so much they can do. With Missouri losing so many key players, it is a little lighter lifting in the North. However, Colorado and Nebraska have both improved, so it is not a slam dunk for Kansas. I expect Nebraska to take a step back into respectability this season. I'm not as sanguine on Colorado's chances.

BCS Buster

So, which team is this year's non-BCS team to finish with a top-5 ranking and demand that they should have had a chance to play for a national championship? Boise State is always a favorite, but they open the season against Oregon, they have a dangerous game against Tulsa, and everybody in the WAC knows that a win over the Broncos is a season-defining one. Utah graduated a lot of talent. Seems like last year would have been BYU's year if they were going to do it, especially with a rough non-conference schedule this year. Let's go with TCU, since they've been on the verge for a while, and their non-conference schedule is good, but manageable. Anyone picking BYU, Boise State, Tulsa, or East Carolina would get no argument from me, however.

The thing with Tulsa and East Carolina is that C-USA is a tougher go week-in and week-out, and the individual talent on each team is much more even. The MWC and WAC have some very good teams, but they have some light touches too. Every team needs some lightweights on their schedule to get through it clean. And a team from the outside needs to get through clean to get the BCS recognition.

Other/Notre Dame

Notre Dame seemed to have some talent last year, but didn't seem to be too likely to take advantage of it. I think another year of development will get them back into the realm of the ranked, especially with their relatively light schedule this year. But I don't think they are back anywhere near the top. What that means for a team like Notre Dame is some dumb losses. They may be better than almost every team on their schedule, but young teams can be erratic and teams like that will make mistakes in tight games that can cost them. Like Syracuse last year.

Navy may be threatening this year, however. They play Ohio State in the first week of the season, the week before Ohio State plays USC again. Ohio State hasn't seen this type of offense in a long, long time, and they can struggle against the unfamiliar. So keep an eye on the Midshipmen.

The Wildcards

We start this season with a lot of questions in a lot of places and I, as a part-time analyst who has a normal job, can't even attempt to keep up with everything that is going on. Particularly with all the teams that could do just about anything this year.

The list of teams that could go great guns or get shot down in flames includes Michigan, Ole Miss, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan State, Arkansas, Oregon, South Florida, Kansas State, Illinois, Texas Tech, Notre Dame, West Virginia, and LSU. Note that I didn't include any ACC teams in there. That is because any one of them could end up with at least a 10-2 season this year. Well, again, not Duke, but the rest of them could.

Many of these teams are breaking in new or pretty new head coaches, which makes them volatile. Any head coach, as he is starting out, is going to have a learning process. He needs to learn his own style as he figures out how to be the head man. He needs to not only learn about himself, but he also needs to learn about his assistants and his players and what he can expect from them. Meanwhile, he needs to manage games and make difficult, gut-wrenching decisions that used to fall on someone else. It's those difficult decisions that decide games. Even decision-making requires practice.

Likewise, previous head coaches who have moved on to new teams are going to have a break-in period. Players need to get used to the new coach and the way he does things. Even a good coach who will fit well with his team does not necessarily start out well with the current players.

However, other teams I listed have established coaches, but need to break in new players. The thing about college is that, when you lose a lot of players, you may have players who just needed to see the field to show what they can do. Or you may find that you just reloaded with a bunch of blanks. And when you have a lot of new players (freshmen in particular) who are going to see the field, who knows what can happen when they get a chance at the next level?

It's the surprises that make this sport so great. And we will have plenty of them this year, too. So take this list, study it well and then throw it in the trash once the season starts, because it will undoubtedly be obsolete by week 2.

1. Florida - Duh.
2. Southern California - I expect the usual: slaughter the big opponents, drop a meaningless game, blow out the Rose Bowl opponent, and complain that there should be playoffs.
3. Texas - With Oklahoma's personnel losses, Texas's path is much clearer. It's not easy, but it is clearer.
4. Georgia - If they can stay healthy on the offensive line, they should do much better than they did last year. And the SEC East isn't nearly as rough as the West.
5. TCU - My pick for BCS buster this year. They seem like the best limb to be out on.
6. Oklahoma - Still an excellent team, but they lost some important parts.
7. Penn State - The team to beat in the Big Ten, in my estimation.
8. Florida State - I'm figuring someone will pop out of the ACC pack this year. If I figure correctly, my guess for that team is the Seminoles. That's a lot of gambling on #8.
9. Alabama - I originally picked them at #4. Then they dismissed some key players from last season. In my estimation, their depth this season should have evened out their personnel losses. But now they don't have as much depth as I had expected.
10. South Florida - They are consistently on the verge. If they can ever get the depth, they can push over the hump. I think they will have depth this year.
11. Ohio State - They consistently beat teams they should beat. Too bad for them that they shouldn't beat USC or Penn State.
12. Boise State - My first non-BCS choice to swap with TCU on this list.
13. Oregon State - They will be a target after last year, but I don't see a lot of teams that should beat them. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt against Oregon.
14. Virginia Tech - Broke out of their bowl slump, but they still don't have all they need on offense for a great year.
15. BYU - Solid team, but that schedule is a bruiser.
16. Ole Miss - Had the benefit of surprise last year. They won't this year. The SEC West will grind them down.
17. North Carolina - I like what Butch Davis is doing, so I'll hitch my wagon to him this year.
18. Oklahoma State - Still very good. Still not as good as Texas or Oklahoma.
19. Oregon - Could swap them with Oregon State and be happy with my pick.
20. Kansas - The class of the Big XII North. That isn't saying much.
21. Tulsa - Conference USA has enough middling good teams that they should end up with some bad matchups.
22. Connecticut - I can't decide between Connecticut or Michigan State in this spot. I'll roll the dice with the Huskies on account of the improvement in the Big Ten's lower portions.
23. Notre Dame - I may regret putting them up here. I may regret putting them this low. I think they have some genuine talent that is still young and unpredictable. They also have a pretty weak schedule.
24. Nebraska - I liked what I saw in the bowl game and I think they are ready to finish with a number next to their name.
25. Georgia Tech - Liked the offense during the season. Didn't like it in the bowl game.