Week 13 Precap

It's been an odd year this year. Most of the big-time, exciting matchups with big repercussions on the national races occurred in September, while October and November have lacked almost any interest whatsoever. The best games have been played by mid-level schools, while the top teams have played a bunch of nobodies. Admittedly, much of that is because the top teams are that much better than the other teams on the schedule, and the top conferences that were supposed to challenge the top teams turned into giant puddles of nothing special. And now it's Rivalry Week, and all we have are a lot of very lopsided rivalry games that couldn't fire up a pile of oily rags.

The thing about it is that it is still Rivalry Week and rivalries make for strange results in the most unexpected places. The problem is that they are unexpected, so I cannot—by definition—expect them. But we'll try.

The National Title

First things first, I want to give a quick rundown of the national title picture. I'll keep it short, because I want to get this article finished early, and I don't want to make this article overlong.

It's still a 6-team race for the title right now, with three teams clearly lined up to determine the national title, if nothing unexpected happens to any of them. This is very well known and very boring, and I don't need to go into details. But let's take a look at the situation and give the full rundown.

Alabama, Florida, and Texas are lined up to play in the national title game. Obviously, Alabama and Florida are playing each other and one or the other will be knocked off December 5. Texas is in if it wins out. But what are the other teams' possibilities for getting into the title game? Let me give a rundown.

• Boise State - Needs Texas, TCU, and Cincinnati to lose. I doubt they would pass a one-loss SEC team, but they will pass any of the other teams if they drop a game.
• Cincinnati - Needs two of the three things to happen: Texas to lose, TCU to lose, or both Alabama and Florida to lose this weekend. They will pass a one-loss SEC team only if both teams come into the SEC championship with one loss. That will murder both team's chances, and it will make the SEC title game seem like much less of a big deal. A one-loss Alabama or Florida that redeems themselves with a win over an undefeated Florida or Alabama will still stay ahead of the Bearcats. Sorry to break it down like that, but it's just the facts.
• TCU - Needs either Texas to lose, or a one-loss SEC champion. Of all the teams waiting in the wings, TCU is the sexiest. They score mondo points on offense and their defense is well-known to be darn near impenetrable. They won a national title in the past, they have two wins against BCS conference foes, they are still a Texas school, and they play in a very highly-regarded conference. If the eventual SEC champ screws the pooch this weekend, I think TCU will take their spot. I say this because I think a lot of voters would jump at the chance to put a non-BCS school into the title game. Some would do it because they think it would validate the BCS. Others would do it because it seems like they would be thumbing their noses at the BCS. All of them like TCU because they seem to fit their desires. And the lack of air time they've had this year makes them mysterious and dangerous... like an attractive, exotic new foreign exchange student.

Personally, I'm intrigued by the possibilities of a Florida-TCU matchup. I have to admit, I've been waiting so long for Florida-Texas that it doesn't seem all that exciting anymore. Especially when both teams have been sleepwalking through the season against a lineup of opponents that did not turn out to be anything special. Not that it is their fault that their conference foes struggled this year, but neither team has played a truly big game this season. The most exciting moments for Texas and Florida so far have been a close win against a 2-loss Oklahoma team and Tebow's concussion.

Boise State-Texas gives me some tingle, as does Cincinnati-Alabama. But aside from the Texas-Florida game we've all been awaiting less and less anxiously every week, none of the other possible matchups really does anything for me, personally. Not that it matters much, I'll be watching no matter what happens.

Texas vs. Texas A&M

I can't tell if this should be a good game or not. Texas A&M has been so Jeckyll and Hyde all year that they could win this by 14 or lose it by 56. Judging by their scores over the season, I would guess that they run a high-risk offense that, when it is good, it is very, very good; but when it is bad, it is horrid. That will win you some big games, but will lose you a lot of smaller ones. Texas, however, has a very efficient offense with big play capability, and it is run by a truly great quarterback. On defense, Texas A&M has been equally spotty, while Texas has been solid all season. And, while Texas has not really been challenged all season, Texas A&M has played many of the same teams as Texas and found them very challenging. To win this game, Texas A&M needs to jump out to a substantial early lead and keep scoring points as they weather the inevitable flurry of points that Texas will be able to put up. And they will need some key stops late when Texas pulls to within one score. I don't foresee any of that happening. Texas wins.

Boise State vs. Nevada

Nevada has been on a hot streak as of late, and Boise State's defense hasn't been impressing much in its last few games. And Boise State has not been challenged much this year. If Nevada can stay in the game, Boise State might start pressing. If they start pressing, they are more likely to make mistakes. If they start making mistakes, and if Nevada can keep their heads about them, then Nevada can take advantage and turn mistakes into points. That means that Boise State would start getting frustrated and lose control of themselves and the game and, when they do have things go their way, will make the sort of mental mistakes that make teams miss chances to win games late. That is exactly what I expect to happen. I'll go with Nevada in this one.

Cincinnati vs. Illinois

This should, by all rights and expectations, be a good game, despite the fact that Illinois stinks. Illinois probably has more individually talented players than Cincinnati right now. If Juice Williams and Arrelius Benn can find the mojo they had back in 2007, then they will beat Cincinnati. But they have been off all year and their defense can't stop the pass. If their defensive line can somehow get some hits on Tony Pike, or if Tony Pike is rusty from his time off, then the Illini will have a chance. Oh hell, I'll take Illinois. Cincinnati is coming off a bye week, against a pissed off but talented team that needs some validation for their season, and they are starting a just-returned quarterback who may be rusty, and they have a defense that looks as though it is wearing down... this stinks of a trap game to me. The Illini it is.

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia

This one is tough to call. West Virginia is still a very solid team, while Pittsburgh has both this game and Cincinnati to worry about next week. I was not impressed with West Virginia in the Cincinnati game, as they looked like they just wanted to get the game over with, no matter how it turned out. But this week should be different, as it is the Backyard Brawl. But Pittsburgh will also be up for this game and they are looking pretty good right about now. I'll take Pitt to prepare the way for a Big East title game next week.

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia

If Georgia is going to win, they are going to have to figure out how to play offense and defense, because they haven't done much of either this year. I'll stick with Georgia Tech this week, fine thanks.

Florida vs. Florida State

You know, I'll give you a description of the things Florida State needs to do to win this game, but we all know none of them are going to happen. For starters, they need better starters, which isn't going to be happen by gametime. They need their defense to step up and play lights out for Mickey Andrews' last regular season game, but I don't think even Mickey has his heart in it any more. They need their offense to do just about anything, which is looking increasingly unlikely with each passing year. They need to make sure that Tim Tebow is not the player to beat them, which no team in football ever bothers to even try. And their new quarterback needs to go nuts and become the First Coming of the great quarterback Florida State has never had; a problem which has plagued them throughout the last 30 years or so. I'm not smelling an upset here. The Gators run it up on the Seminoles.

Alabama vs. Auburn

Auburn pretty much needs to do what Texas A&M needs to do: jump out to an early lead and keep scoring points. Auburn has also been doing the Jeckyll and Hyde thing this year, so it's not entirely unlikely. But they would then need to hang on as Alabama grinds them down between the tackles, then throws the ball to any receiver named Julio Jones to loosen up the safeties. If Auburn can wear out Alabama's defensive starters and Auburn's defense can prevent long drives by Alabama, then they will be in good shape. But the odds of that happening are a lot longer than I like when I'm picking games. I'll take the Tide, fine thank you.

Utah vs. BYU

This is the only game between ranked teams?! Is anyone outside the Mountain West even trying?!

As much as the Mountain Time Zone may not like my saying this, we should not have to rely on a non-BCS conference without a decent television deal to provide us with good matchups. Anyway, I say BYU wins for God-knows-what reason, because I don't have Versus.

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma

All the signs, seals, soothsayers, and indications point to Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma. Which is exactly why I predict they won't. Oklahoma will be hungry, Oklahoma State will be overconfident, Sooners will win.

Stanford vs. Notre Dame

I thought the snowballs were bad last season against Syracuse. Now somebody sucker-punches Jimmy Clausen outside a bar. Things are getting really, really bad for Notre Dame right now. You expect Notre Dame students to be better-mannered than that... or at least I do. But they now seem to be the worst-behaved fans in the sport right now—at least toward their own team. Notre Dame may actually be better off going two-thirds of the way across the country to play this game than they would be if they stayed home. Not that it matters much, Stanford is still much better than Notre Dame. If Stanford is still reeling from their loss to Cal, then Notre Dame has a shot. I don't expect that, so I'll take Stanford for the win.