Week 14 Precap

Here we go once more with the last batch of games that can fire us up or leave us cold. We've got the most anticipated game of the year so far happening in the SEC and the most dreaded conference championship game I can think of happening in the same neighborhood between ACC divisional champs. And we have de facto conference championships occurring on the Ohio River, and in the Pacific Northwest. And let's not forget that we have actual conference championship games that are being overlooked amidst all the other hubbub.

Oregon vs. Oregon State

I don't know how Oregon State does it, but they once again have a chance to take the Pac-10 title. Their annual slow start was followed, once again, by a furious finish. And as Oregon State kept winning, the rest of the conference started losing, and here we are in Eugene, ready for a big game between the Ducks and Beavers that I don't think anybody expected to be a big game prior to the season. Actually, I don't think anybody thought this would be a big game even 5 weeks ago. But now we have something to talk about other than what the hell sort of uniform Oregon will be wearing come Thursday night.

I'd give Oregon State a chance in this game if it weren't being contested in Autzen Stadium. The Ducks simply don't lose at home. The biggest variable in this game, however, will be how both teams come off of the bye week. While it was only 11 days between games for both teams, some teams come out of bye weeks stale, while other come out stronger than they went in. I assume that the extra rest for Jeremiah Masoli's legs will pay additional dividends this week, helping the Ducks to a difficult, but eventual victory over their Civil War rivals.

Ohio vs. Central Michigan

Yes, I know it's just the MAC. But hey, it's a conference championship game, so I think we should give the smaller schools some attention. They work hard every week just like everybody else, and though they may not be as big or strong or fast or skilled as some other teams, they are still pretty good and deserve some attention.

Anyway, Ohio is still coached by Frank Solich, and he has done wonders for a team that was so down and out for so long that people thought they were in I-AA. And I'm glad to see that Solich has proven himself to be a good coach, because he was unfairly maligned in Nebraska for being the coach when teams in the Big XII South improved to their normal level. But that won't count for much against a very good Central Michigan team with an entirely excellent Dan LeFevour wrapping up his 18th year as quarterback of the Chippewas. Look for Central Michigan to take the win.

Houston vs. East Carolina

It's been quite a roller coaster ride for Houston this year. After a hot start to the year, people were whining endlessly that the Cougars were going to get shut out of the national title game. Two losses later, they are not even being talked about as BCS material. They can commiserate with last year's early-season C-USA darlings: East Carolina. But not before they beat them for the Conference USA championship.

It should be noted that whichever team wins this game, they will be the first 2-time winner of the Conference USA Championship Game. I know you don't care. Come to think of it, neither do I. Especially since it took all of five years for that to happen.

Cinncinnati vs. Pittsburgh

I am happy to report that, in fact, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh do play for a trophy—I was not aware of that fact last year. It's the Paddle Wheel trophy and it was designed in the expectation that these two teams would become rivals. The reasons for that are actually pretty good, when you get down to it: these cities' NFL and baseball teams are both divisional rivals, and they have a long history of familiarity, thanks to the Ohio River, which is formed at Pittsburgh and flows by Cincinnati. They even call it the River City Rivalry, a name I rather like. I'm not sure anybody else calls it that, but it's worth noting.

I found a history of this particular game and I was interested, but not surprised, to learn that last year was the first time Cincinnati had ever beaten Pittsburgh. They had only played four times prior to 2005 (when Cincinnati joined the Big East) and Pittsburgh—which was a national power in years gone by—won all those games. And then Pittsburgh won the subsequent 3 conference games prior to last year.

However, that does not help Pittsburgh this year. I'd like to pick Pittsburgh this week, as they are at home, and they sure looked like they were looking ahead to this game during the West Virginia game. But, contrary to my own expectation, I haven't seen any indication from Cincinnati that they are going to lose steam this year. They come out fast and keep the pedal to the floor for four quarters, and they have done that every week, all season long. If they can get a couple of early stops against Pittsburgh, I don't think the Panthers will have enough time for their offense to wear down the Bearcats front seven and close the gap. I'm taking Cincinnati to get their first-ever winning streak against Pittsburgh.

Georgia Tech vs. Clemson

You know, I keep expecting someone from the ACC to pop out of the pack and make a run at the national title. But the rest of the league seems to be made of quicksand, because all of them keep dragging each other down. Now the two best teams in the league (or so we are told), duff their games against their biggest rivals... who happen to come from the never-maligned SEC. This is not the way to convince people that you are the new superconference in college football.

Anyway, both teams are limping in, but they are still pretty good. Clemson has cobbled together a good season from a rough start. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has been powerful all year, two unfortunate games excepted.

I would like to make the point that, if Georgia Tech can get its offense rolling, it is very tough to stop. However, it has lately occurred to me that any offense of any design, once it gets rolling, is very tough to stop. If Georgia Tech can get a better passer in that offense, it will be much more dangerous; but it is hard to recruit a good passer to run the ball 20 times a game. I'd guess that Georgia Tech will always lack a certain something unless Paul Johnson happens across a quarterback who runs well, but has a largely untested arm that turns out to be pretty good.

None of that will matter this week, however, as I don't think Clemson will have the sort of defensive line play required to get significant and consistent penetration into the backfield—the most effective way to stop any rushing attack. Georgia Tech rolls to a BCS bowl.

Texas vs. Nebraska

You know, I look at this game and I hear whispers of 1996. That was when a powerful Nebraska team rolled into the Big XII Championship Game to play an unranked and unremarkable Texas team in a game that most people probably didn't watch, because it was so lopsided. Texas, of course, won that game in an upset that sent shockwaves through college football and established the Big XII as a deep, competitive conference.

Now the roles are reversed. Texas is coming in as the national title contender and Nebraska is the upstart program that seems to be overmatched and about to be overwhelmed. And I expect the exact same thing to happen this year as it did in 1996: Texas will win.

You may be wondering at the fact that I have done nothing but pick favorites in all of these games. To which I respond, "Darn right!" This season has been so predictable that it has actually become frustrating.

Florida vs. Alabama

Florida and Alabama were tagged early this season as the teams to beat both in the SEC and across the nation. They have been consistently excellent, they have fantastic defenses and better than good-enough offenses, and they are the unquestioned princes of the SEC. However, to be a prince is nothing when another prince has been made king.

Look, I've seen several Florida games for the last few years and I see no reason to expect that Alabama will win. Alabama's defense is not going to stop Tim Tebow, because they are not even going to try to stop Tim Tebow. They will cover Florida's receivers, they will hit their running backs, they will worry endlessly about the tight ends, but they are going to ignore Tim Tebow just like every other team has for the last 4 years. Then Alabama will look just as ridiculous as every other team when Tebow drops back to pass on 3rd and 8, then tucks the ball and runs straight up the field for 26 yards. And the later in the game it gets, the more Tebow is going to hold on to the ball and do it all himself, and the sillier Alabama will look when he is running all over the field with nobody around to stop him.

Florida may give their running backs and receivers some early carries, and Alabama will stop their offense while the Gators do that. But once Tebow just keeps the ball and runs on his own, this game is over.