National Predictions 2010

Ah, I do so love this time of year. The anticipation is enough to make you nauseaus. All the mysteries of the coming year are yet bundled in a mysterious package that says, "Do not begin opening until September, and do not finish until January." That's a long time to stretch the process of unwrapping. And most of the unwrapping involves figuring out what likely isn't inside, but not being sure entirely what it is until you finish unwrapping. And I think we can all agree that this turned out to be a terrible analogy.

This year starts with one whole heck of a lot more mystery than the last few. The returning champs are still the returning champs, Ohio State and Boise State are likely to be pretty strong, but the rest of the teams are largely unknown. When almost everybody is putting a team from a mid-tier conference in their pre-season top 3, I think we can all agree that we are entering some very new, very unusual territory.

Which is pretty well how things are anyway, considering that much of the conference landscape has been reshuffled. I'll have much to say on that topic later, but let's stick to one thing at a time for now.

There is much to discuss, much to pontificate, and much to consider when we look at the season this year, and I am anxious to get started. So let's do that very thing.

A New Procedure

I did something a little different this year when I put together my predictions. I started by putting together a complete list of every team in Div. I FBS. I admit that I had some trouble remembering UTEP and Middle Tennessee State, but I have the feeling everybody else will have the same problem by October.

Next, I organized everyone into their conferences and ranked them in their conference or conference division, or at least a rough estimate of which division I thought they were in (my first mention of the ACC for the season). This is where things got to be fun.

Rather than attempting to put together my national rankings by filling in each 1-25 spot, I started with the Big XII South list (I had to start somewhere) and put them in the order, relative to each other, that I thought they would be ranked at the end of the season. I then added each conference and each division team into the list by placing it in a spot where I expected them to land relative to the teams I had already added. By putting each team into the list in this way, I was able to maintain cohesion, while making sure I didn't forget anybody. Quite by accident, I managed to put together exactly the sort of list I wanted.

What sort of list do I want? Well, allow me to show you:

1. Alabama - Best choice available.
2. USC - If they stick together and stay angry, they'll be fine.
3. Boise State - Their season depends almost entirely upon September.
4. Nebraska - They seem to be back on the rise.
5. Ohio State - Tougher road than some might think.
6. Texas - Still pretty powerful, but Colt McCoy will be missed.
7. Miami (FL) - I'm concerned about their depth. Otherwise, I'm impressed.
8. Wisconsin - Power in the run game, firepower from the quarterback, hard-hitting defense.
9. Oregon - Could be a much better team but for the offseason.
10. Cincinnati - Oh, what the heck.
11. Florida - New quarterback, new defense, good talent, need a new set of leaders.
12. Houston - Heck, why not?
13. Oregon State - The Beavers just keep chugging along.
14. Virginia Tech - Meh.
15. Oklahoma - After last season's debacle, I think this is a big step forward.
16. Utah - I may have them too low.
17. Georgia Tech - Their offense has big problems against good defensive lines.
18. Iowa - Won't surprise anybody like they did last year.
19. Arkansas - Is this only my third SEC team in my preseason poll? Indeed, it is.
20. TCU - A very good team that looked very confused in the Fiesta Bowl.
21. SMU - I'm as surprised as everybody else that they're here.
22. Pittsburgh - I'm not quite sure what to make of them yet.
23. Penn State - Not quite sure what to make of them either.
24. Navy - I do love the triple option.
25. Nevada - This one is even more surprising than SMU.

Pretty nice, eh? What, you don't like it? Well, allow me to address your concerns.

Number One - Alabama

I've said this before, I am saying it again, and I will probably say this every year that I do these predictions: The first rule of picking a pre-season number 1 team is don't pick anyone who will make you look stupid. Alabama may be losing most of their defense, but they are still abundantly overpowering, they are fundamentally sound, and they are more than good enough to beat almost everyone on their schedule even when they are having a bad day, supposing they don't have bad luck in the injury department. Which brings me to the next issue.

Where Are All the SEC Teams from the Greatest Conference in the World: The SEC?

Well, let's discuss that.

I've said this before, I am saying it again, and I will be saying it until the SEC fixation ceases: The other SEC teams needed to get their conference and national titles while Alabama was down. Because once the Tide rolled back in, the list of teams in the SEC would return to being what it was before:

• Alabama
• etc.

The SEC has been a one-team conference for most of its history. Only the disappearance of Alabama in the '90's and '00's gave the rest of the teams a chance to strut their stuff. Now that Alabama is back, they will likely overpower the rest of the SEC both on the field and in recruiting.

Last year's SEC was a fairly unremarkable lot. Aside from Alabama and Florida, there were a lot of pretty good teams, but nobody stellar. And all they did was knock each other off. Nobody other than the Big Two had more than a couple of noteworthy players, and nobody else had the defense necessary to keep a lid on Florida's or Alabama's offense forever. Both Alabama and Florida could line up and physically dominate the team across from them in the run game, then throw the ball into a wide-open secondary when the opponent needed to squeeze more players into the box. Alabama was the first team that could handle Florida's offensive line for four quarters with their front seven; Florida could not do the same to Alabama—which is why Alabama blew the game open late against Florida.

The other problem in the SEC last year was that a lot of the teams did one or two things well, but that was it. Opposing teams just needed to stop the other team's one thing, then try to get their one thing going. This turned the games into questions of how one team's strengths and weaknesses matched up against the other team's strengths and weaknesses, rather than who was the better team.

I don't see anything to indicate that any of that changed this year. The SEC may have the best bunch of 8-5 teams in the country, but 8-5 seasons don't keep you in the polls.

Florida at Number 11

The only reason I can't hear the howling from Gainesville is that this is not a popular website.

Florida runs a very complex and unusual offensive scheme. It takes time for a quarterback to learn to run it properly. It takes experience running it in a game to learn to run it properly in a game. Which means that mistakes will be made. Mistakes lead to losses in close games. And with the losses on the defensive side of the ball, I expect them to land somewhere around 10-4. Yes, I expect them to make the SEC championship game.

USC at Number 2

You know those guys who suddenly show up and, because they do things differently, are able to turn around a team instantly? I expect Lane Kiffin to do that very thing. The problem arises when the entire reason that they have success is that they are different from the guy before them. The novelty wears off of revolutionary new offenses. Assertion of fundamentals and basics becomes unimaginative and boring. Loose coaches become coaches who can't keep discipline. Disciplinarians become inflexible taskmasters.

USC has a lot of talent that needs to be brought into line. It should be big dividends this year, but Southern California—as a region of the country—likes its image as a freewheeling culture that isn't much inclined toward that sort of rigidity. Pete Carroll may have lacked discipline and focus, but that is as much the image of SoCal as it was the image of his football team. That was part of his problem. That's also a whole lot of the reason he was so popular and so successful.

And let's not forget that these kids are going to be playing PISSED OFF. Because of the actions of some previous players—whom the current players undoubtedly admired—they lost their chance at a bowl bid and, possibly, a BCS National Title Game slot. Don't think that won't get these guys riled up and ready to bust heads.

Boise State at Number 3

Spare me the crap about Boise State's trick plays; Boise State plays some of the most disciplined, fundamentally sound football you will ever see. The trick plays they run work well because they come late in the game when the other team does not expect them. This is because the sound execution the Broncos display in all phases of the game requires opponents to be relentlessly disciplined in all phases if they want to hang with Boise State. Trick plays are designed to use the discipline of the other team against itself. If the other team isn't disciplined, Boise State can out-execute most teams. If the other team is consumed with just executing the basics, Boise State can pull off a trick play to turn around a close score, or blow open a small lead.

Problem is, Boise State's players are usually not quite as physically talented as some of the bigger names. The difference isn't quite as large as some might like to believe, but it is there. However, teams like Alabama, Texas, and USC are just as disciplined, and their players are every bit as fundamentally sound as Boise State's. Which means that if they are executing just as well as Boise State, their athletic superiority can allow them to beat most of Boise State's players man-to-man. Which means that Boise State can be overwhelmed by a physically superior team over four quarters. Trick plays don't mean diddly if the best thing they can do is cut a lead to 21 late in the game.

Even if Boise State makes it to the title game, I expect that things won't go well for them against someone like Alabama or Texas. Which means they will drop out of #2 if things go really bad. But if they get a traditional power that isn't quite as good as it's cracked up to be, or a team that isn't quite as big of a name, then I think Boise State will be able to pull off the "upset".

Nebraska at Number 4

I admit that I assembled my top 5 prior to going with the ranking method I described above. Even then, Nebraska was the team I put at number 4.

Nebraska has a pretty open road ahead of them this year. Nothing too bad out of conference, the Big XII North is utterly unremarkable, and the Big XII South is probably going to regress this year. Besides which, they don't need to tangle with Oklahoma this year, unless they meet them in the Big XII championship. Sounds like things could be pretty smooth for a team that started putting things together late last year. They may drop a game or two, but I expect big things from the Huskers this year.

Ohio State at Number 5

As much as I like Ohio State's team this year, I just don't see them getting through the season unscathed. The Big Ten's bottom half has had a resurgence, which means that unexpected teams are going to be dangerous at unanticipated portions of the season. Iowa and Wisconsin are pretty good. And who the heck knows what to expect from Michigan now that RichRod has his kind of players and those players have had a year of experience in his offense.

And, as an Ohio State fan, that Miami game on September 11 has me nervous. Tressel's teams tend to start the season slow then build up as they go. I expect Miami to start fast like they did last year. Plus, I'm not sure how well Ohio State matches up well with the Hurricanes. Miami can get the ball to their receivers in space and I don't know a whole lot about Ohio State's speed or open-field tackling in the secondary. And Miami has a quick defensive line that will have fresh legs and can take advantage of Ohio State's tendency to zone block in the run game. The Bucks could go undefeated, they may get stung for 3 losses this year... it's hard to tell. But they are top-5 material if Terrelle Pryor stays healthy.

20-25

Of all the parts of this pre-season prediction, I like 20-25 the best. Why? Because these spots in the human polls are usually reserved for solid teams from some of the lesser conferences, and traditional powers that maybe weren't great, but deserve some kudos for putting together a better campaign at the end than they had a reasonable right to expect at the beginning.

I have a smattering of teams from a few of the non-AQ teams that I expect to finish with about 10-11 wins by staying focused and beating the teams they are supposed to beat. I have Penn State, who I expect to struggle at times (particularly in Tuscaloosa on September 11), but manage a workmanlike performance in a fairly good Big Ten. And I have Pittsburgh, who is not going to surprise anyone this year, but should still be able to manage a good season. TCU and Utah are pre-season interchangeable in their spots, since I'm not sure who is going to get the win in their annual matchup for the Mountain West championship. But I don't expect either team to be above 11 wins for the year.

I didn't even really intend to put those specific teams in there. They just fell into place when I assembled my preseason poll in the way I described above. I can officially say that I like that method of picking teams.

Cincinnati at Number 10

Heck, who else are you going to pick from the Big East? Two straight conference titles is nothing to sneeze at... even in the Big East. The questions about the best team from the state of Ohio will last for another year. Their game against Oklahoma is intriguing; it will be a good litmus test for two teams coming into the season with a lot of questions about themselves; I'm anxious to see how that one turns out.

Miami at Number 7

I'm talking about Miami beating my #5 team and I rank them at #7? Darn right. I think that this team will have the same problem last year's team did: their starters are going to get worn down by the grind of 8-4 teams with different strengths and weaknesses, and there won't be enough quality backups to pick up the slack. Teams built on speed lose their edge when they have tired legs. However, they are a little older than last year and their schedule sets up pretty well for them until the very end. I expect the 'Canes will have a good year going before their season tails off at the end.

Oregon at Number 9

Most of the PAC-10 will not have caught up with Oregon's scheme yet, but the personnel losses due to stupidity are going to cost the Ducks.

Who's Missing?

There are a couple of teams who didn't show up in this year's poll that deserve mention. Which I will do now.

Stanford

Stanford had some big success last year with their grind-it-out offense. Unfortunately, their big, bad, grinding back has moved on to become an NFL novelty. Word has it that the Cardinal will now be relying on Andrew Luck for their offense. I saw Andrew Luck play a couple of times. Let's just say he lacks polish.

North Carolina

Heck, you try to figure out the ACC. A lot of people are pretty high on UNC after last season's defensive dominance. But with the wonkiness of determining the ACC, I'm not going to jump on that bandwagon yet.

Georgia

Every year I have done these predictions, I have overranked them. This year, I skipped them altogether. We'll see if that decision pays off for me this year.

The Annual Mystery Teams

Every year, there are teams who could do just about anything ranging from going to the BCS to finishing with 2 wins. So who are the wildcards who could do just about anything this year? Let's take a look.

• Michigan - Yes, they have been stinking the last couple of years, but RichRod has his kind of players now, they have had a year together, and they may be dangerous. This is another team that I think is one year away, but I think they should at least sneak in eight wins this year. They need to get them early, though... this team is still thin on defense and they may run out of gas by the end of the season
• Notre Dame - New coach, new system, and Brian Kelly has had success everywhere he has gone. I'm not sure what to expect, but I'll be keeping an eye on them.
• USC - They thudded last year, they've always had a ton of talent, they replaced the best coach they've had in at least 30 years, and now they have cause for a serious chip on their shoulder. There are indicator arrows pointing in every direction for the Trojans, so I have the feeling that whatever happens will be on one extreme or another. As long as it holds together, they will be fine; if any cracks show, they will widen quickly and the dam will crumble.
• Texas - They are returning the quarterback who had to step into the national title game when the great Colt McCoy went down with an injury. Garrett Gilbert had a great game... if you consider completing 37.5% of your passes with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions a great game. He should be more polished with an offseason to prepare, but are his receivers going to be able to catch this year?
• The ACC in general - College football's version of the random number generator.
• Miami, specifically - I'm still not sure what to make of the Hurricanes. They have upgraded their talent in the last couple of years, and I have been impressed with their quickness. Individually, they are incredibly talented, but their team execution varies widely. And they are so dependent upon small, quick players that I don't see a team that can stand up to the physical abuse of 12 games. However, when they do get things working, they are very impressive to watch and can blow games wide open in no time. If they can get on the same page for an entire season, and get some blowouts in the middle of the season that will let the starters rest their legs, then they can have a huge year. If they get stuck in a lot of close games against physical teams, then they could lose their grasp on the season before they realize it.
• Oklahoma - Hard to tell what to make of last year. Big offensive line problems all year, and I don't expect them to be fixed all in one offseason.
• Cincinnati - Last year was a great season with a bad ending. They've been excellent for a couple of years. Now they have a new coach, new quarterback, and no Gilyard, so who knows what to expect?
• Iowa - The Hawkeyes spent all year playing with fire, and somehow it was usually the other team that got burned. They could win the Big Ten. They could be playing in the Alamo Bowl. They should have a very good defense. Their offense needs to learn to take care of the ball.
• Oregon - Big season last year, but they lost Jeremiah Masoli—the triggerman who really made it work, and one of the rare running quarterbacks who may be big enough to survive a season's worth of abuse in the spread option. But the Pac-10 is not used to their offensive scheme, so when they get things working, they work really well. And who is going to fill the leadership void left by Masoli? Many questions for the Ducks, but no answers are available in the preseason.

Well, that wraps up another preseason prediction page. Stay tuned for a recap of the conference realignment now that we may have some idea of how things will play out.