Week 1 Precap

How did we get to the start of the season already? I have no idea where the summer went, and now we are already into game week. I don't know what to make of it, honestly. I feel like someone who fell asleep on a long drive home and suddenly woke up to find that the car was pulling into the driveway. "Wow, that was a short trip," I might say. The driver, however, would not agree.

It's been a crazy offseason, and I don't see things getting any calmer anytime soon. The Big Ten is considering moving the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry to October, BYU is considering going independent, and there are several schools playing out their last season in their soon-to-be former conferences. Things are so wound up right now that things could get positively explosive just about everywhere. And as much as the Big East, ACC, and SEC haven't really been affected by the craziness, the Big East and ACC at the very least are probably on edge, lest they find themselves being raided by the other conferences.

I will have much to say on these topics, and I will try very hard to do so before things come to a head. But there are more pressing issues that I must address, and those are the actual games! It is sometimes hard to remember that the actual games being played are the entire point of all the insanity that is flying around. The games are the sport. And they are, at the end, the reason we love the sport... and the reason we get so wound up about it.

I know that I usually make it a rule not to make picks on the first weekend, but this is no ordinary opening weekend. Things are very, very exciting right now, and the season kicks off with a game that has major national impact. But, of course, we need to save that one for last, because there isn't enough stress in college football right now.

Ohio State vs. Marshall

No, it's not a big game, but Ohio State will probably not look very good in it. Marshall is a decent team, Ohio State always starts the season slow under Jim Tressel, they are going to have their minds on their game against Miami next week, and the Buckeyes don't have any experience with Thursday-night games. Marshall also has a new head coach and they are going to be running a version of the spread-option, which Ohio State generally doesn't defend very well. As a matter of fact, no, I am not going to rule out an upset, because I'm a pessimistic Ohio State fan—something which I have made no secret of. However, the sensible expectation for this game is that Ohio State plays a close one for four quarters and pulls away late for an unimpressive 10-14 point victory that will drop them to number 4 in the polls.

Southern Mississippi vs. South Carolina

South Carolina is being touted as a dark-horse pick in the SEC East. I'm not seeing it myself, but they should at least get off to a good start by beating Southern Miss.

Pittsburgh vs. Utah

Another really good game on opening weekend that I am going to be keeping an eye on. Both teams are a bit on the mysterious side, since Pitt is still fighting to return itself to the national discussions, and Utah is wavering on that edge of consistent excellence that may or may not hold. And all this in a replay of the 2005 Fiesta Bowl that got Walt Harris fired for taking Pittsburgh to a BCS bowl. That seems like an eternity ago, doesn't it?

Much as I like Utah in this game, Pitt has seen and gotten used to a similar offense from West Virginia and Cincinati, whereas Utah is not used to the power game that Pitt brings. If Pitt can get 3-4 yards per carry in the first quarter, they will be fine by the time the fourth arrives. Pittsburgh gets down early, then comes from behind for the win.

Illinois vs. Missouri

Another season-starting intersectional rivalry. And another reason Missouri would like to be in the Big Ten, as I'm sure Missouri would like to make this game into a bigger deal.

Ron Zook has been under fire for a while, but I think he buys himself a little more time when Illinois wins here.

Colorado vs. Colorado State

Dan Hawkins has also been under fire for a while, but he has never even indicated that that will change. Colorado State wins.

Purdue vs. Notre Dame

The Kelly era begins at Notre Dame. I think it begins with a win over Purdue.

Kentucky vs. Louisville

As a matter of fact, yes, I am trying to drag this out as long as possible while you wait for my pick of this week's big game. You're still reading aren't you. Yes you are. Probably because you're waiting for me to make a pick in this game. But I'm not going to do that because I haven't the first clue who's going to win. Okay, you're still reading? Well, I suppose you should at least get something for hanging in there and hoping. Goodness knows that should count for something somewhere. I'll take Kentucky to give Charlie Strong a rough start to his tenure.

Connecticut vs. Michigan

I think we're all going to be interested to see how this turns out. The Rich Rodriguez era at Michigan has been nothing short of disastrous so far, and Connecticut has been a solid team for the last few years. However, I think Michigan's depth problems shouldn't arise at this point in the season, so I take Michigan to win a game that is actually pretty huge for the Wolverines.

UCLA vs. Kansas State

Huh. This game is going on? I had no idea. This one should actually be pretty good. Or at least it should be in the meaning of "it will be close." Whether the actual football being played is good will be an entirely different story. I'll take UCLA in this one because they've got to be better than Kansas State about now. Or at least they'd better be.

Washington vs. BYU

Jake Locker will impress. Too bad the rest of his team won't. BYU wins.

Oregon State vs. TCU

I really like TCU. They play good football, solid defense, and they have been consistently improving for several years, such that they are able to call themselves contenders. However, I was not all that thrilled with their offense in the Fiesta Bowl last year. I'm going with Oregon State to pull off the upset.

North Carolina vs. LSU

Who would have figured an intersectional game between ranked teams on opening weekend would be overshadowed by a Boise State game? If that gives you any idea of how strange things are right now, this is a prime indicator.

North Carolina should actually match up fairly well with LSU, since they have a defense that should be stout enough up front to handle LSU. However, I don't see a Tarheel offense (which was underpowered last year) getting going this early in the season against an LSU defense that should also be pretty strong. I'll take LSU to continue the SEC's habit of driving ACC fans nuts.

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech

Who knew that a former junior college in Idaho would be the biggest draw of the biggest game of the opening weekend of the season? What a decade it has been.

Admittedly, this is not an ideal situation for Boise State (opportunities rarely are). Travel from Boise is not easy, as their airport is not exactly a major hub. I remember a few years ago, when Boise State was traveling to Georgia for an early-season game, that they had to take some ridiculous number of hours to get there because they, in accordance with Idaho state law, had to take the cheapest flight possible. Which meant that they arrived in Athens tired and leg-weary for a game in the broiling Georgia heat, leaving them that much more vulnerable against a team that was not only physically superior, but pretty well ran exactly the same offense as Boise State, only they did it better.

This game, however, is different. Or at least I would hope so. First off, I am hoping that Boise State does not take the worst possible flight to Washington D.C. for the game. If they change nothing else, they should at least figure out a method for getting there that won't leave their team worn out before the game even starts. Second, Boise State has had more big-game experience since the Georgia debacle; they should be ready for this game. Third, if I were interested in having a BCS team schwack the upstarts from the WAC, Virginia Tech would not be my first choice.

Virginia Tech, while certainly a power within their own conference, is not a traditional power along the lines of Alabama, Texas, or (yes, I will say it) Oklahoma. Admittedly, Boise State beat traditional power Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl a few years ago, but I think Oklahoma was rather surprised to find themselves down early before they woke up and nearly won the game—it took a miracle hook-and-lateral play for Boise State to pull off the victory. And Virginia Tech has been on the wrong ends of a couple of early-season beatdowns as of late, due to a punchless offense and a defense that is pretty thin underneath their starting eleven. Besides which, being a power in the ACC isn't exactly something to brag about these days. Come to think of it, I'm not sure that was ever something to brag about.

Boise State matches up very well with Virginia Tech, as they play very disciplined football, they have talented players, and I think they may actually have more consistent depth than Virginia Tech. Their offense is good enough to keep the Hokie defense on the field, and their defense is good enough to get Virginia Tech's routinely poor offense off of it. I don't think it will get ugly, but Boise State is in very good shape in this game if they have fresh legs at the start of it.

In week one, Boise State wins their biggest game of the regular season.