2008 College Football Premortem

2008 Conference Predictions

It is in these hot August nights that it begins. That holy dream that shimmers in the distance. A distant dream. A beacon light burning warm. And we all hang on to that dream.

The past is gone and used-to-be's don't count anymore. But, for now, good times never seemed so good as they do right now. So pack up the babies and grab the old ladies because we're on that ride until there ain't no more to go.

The Usual Ohio State Beginning

There ain't a lot of love out there for the Buckeyes. It is not hard to see why. Two straight shellings in the title game have everyone sick of seeing the scarlet and gray in the big game. I can't say as I can blame them, the last two BCS National Championship Games were terrible. My opinions of what went wrong in both are rather different than some other folks, but regardless of the reason, the execution was terrible. Their complete defensive breakdown and offensive ineptitude was sickening to watch. I have some opinions on why this happened, but I will save those for later. Some of them may come up in the third week of the season, when Ohio State plays USC in a very big early-season game between two (almost) certain top-5 teams. Some of them are also just conjecture right now, and I will need to watch a few games to either confirm or discount my conjecture.

Ohio State does have a tougher row to hoe than they had last year. They are playing in a strengthening Big Ten that is building steam from the bottom up. There are a lot of danger games out there for them, including USC, Troy (a very solid, underrated team), Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Penn State, Illinois, and the annual throwdown with Michigan. Part of the problem is that some of these teams were good last year and could have a breakout year this year. Part of the problem is that you can't be entirely sure how good some of these teams will be. For instance, Illinois was a surprise to everyone last year; the Illini included, I'm sure.

With all that said, Ohio State is still a top-notch team with a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and a ton of experienced starters. However, I don't think the returners will be the difference makers. The difference makers, if there are any, will be the freshmen.

For instance, one thing that Ohio State was missing last year on offense was a genuine deep threat. Brian Robiskie is a very good receiver with NFL potential, but he is not explosive like a Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, or Ted Ginn Jr.; especially not with a name that does not start with a 'G'. Likewise, Brian Hartline does not strike fear into the hearts of defensive backs. Ray Small has potential, but he's been so tentative out there that it is hard for me to be excited about him. These are all good receivers, but a title team needs a burner. Ohio State does not have one, unless one of the freshman has some gazelle in him.

Secondly, Ohio State's defensive front was less than stellar the last couple of years. The defensive tackles have been undersized and there is no aggression from the linebackers. For all those excellent rushing defense numbers the last couple of years, those were largely phantom numbers. Sacks kept those numbers lower than the actual weakness against the run, and many teams had to play catch-up through the air later in the game. A freshman needs to step up at a linebacker spot and lay the lumber on some running backs and quarterbacks if Ohio State wants to beat down the spread option that everyone is starting to play, including Michigan.

USC

Yes, I know that USC slapped Illinois around in the Rose Bowl and everything, but I was not entirely impressed with their performance. Illinois was still in the game in the second half and, if their receivers hadn't coughed up the ball so often after long completions, they would have been able to hang with the Trojans. Plus, everything that could go wrong for Illinois did. For instance, I remember one play which Illinois had defensed perfectly, but for reasons that are hard to explain in text, an uncaught backwards pass screwed up the play so horribly that Illinois was left out of position and a running back picked up a loose ball and ran it for something like 30-40 yards.

It is not that I am saying that a team that takes advantage of opportunities is bad. Far from it, good teams take advantage of opportunities when they happen. But lucky breaks can hide mistakes. I saw a lot of both out there.

USC should be very good this year, but I think there are enough issues to keep them out of the title hunt at the end. The holes I saw against the pass and the addition of a new quarterback lead me to believe that they are good for two or three losses.

The New Coaches

There were a lot of high profile coaching changes this year and they are going to have a big impact on a lot of big-name teams this year and for years to come. Whether that big impact is a good impact is yet to be determined.

Rick Neuheisel

UCLA's hire of Rick Neuheisel was, to my mind, the most remarkably short-sighted hire of the year. Colorado and Washington are still picking up the pieces from the messes he left behind and he was lucky to escape both just in time to avoid being painted with the stigma of his actions. In fact, I think he left Colorado for Washington precisely because he knew that the cupboard was bare in Boulder.

I will grant that he is a very good coach and he does more with less than you could reasonably expect. That's a good thing because they won't have anything soon enough. I've heard a lot of people talk about how excellent Neuheisel is as a recruiter, so I have to assume that they are using some criteria other than evaluating talent and bringing it to your school; he has been nothing short of awful at both. But he always does well early in his tenure, so I would expect him to do the same with the Bruins.

Rich Rodriguez

Michigan's hire of Rich Rodriguez was an odd hire, to my mind. Michigan pulls in top-notch recruits who can run a pro-style offense, but now they hire a guy who runs the new model of the old-fashioned option game: the spread option. But he runs it without running a proper power game or any real passing attack.

The offense he runs is fun to watch, but the beating that the quarterback takes while running that offense can wear him out as the season goes on. That not only means injuries late in the year, it includes those nagging little nicks and bruises and strains that can leave guys a step slow late in the year -- like in the last game of the year, when UM plays OSU. When teams learn to key on the quarterback and beat him senseless through the game and through the year, the spread option is going to have problems. Sure, the quarterback will be able to complete his few passes in the first half, but he won't be able to complete a sentence in the second.

I think the stunning loss to Pitt left Rodriguez in a situation where he felt he needed to move on to make his mark. I think he had determined that he could never quite pull in the recruits he needed to climb that last rung of the ladder and win the national title. There is something to that: West Virginia is the winningest team to have never won a national title. But I don't know that Michigan is a good match for the sort of offense he runs. And considering the way he pissed away the talented Owen Schmidt last year, I am less than sanguine about his chances of getting over that hump with the Wolverines.

However, it is not hard to see why both sides made the decisions they did. Rodriguez was easily the best coach available and Michigan was easily the top job available. In fact, Rodriguez was only available because the Michigan job was available -- there are only a handful of programs that can be considered a decided step up from West Virginia.

By the way, have you ever been in the same room as a couple who's fighting? That's how I feel when I see anything about the Rodriguez-WVU feud.

Bill Stewart

West Virginia's hire of Bill Stewart was, to my mind, both the riskiest and perhaps the best hire of the bunch. I will grant it doesn't really seem like a good idea; the afterglow of the win over Oklahoma had more influence than it should have. Most people hate the hire. But I like it simply because he loves his Mountaineers.

From what I heard about him during the Fiesta Bowl, he would take a bullet for that school if they asked him. And he is going to do whatever it takes to make West Virginia proud. And I also read that he wants to run an offense where Pat White isn't getting the crap kicked out of him all year, which I also highly approve of. No, he may not be the best hire they could have made, but I doubt you'll find a man more deserving of the chance. We'll see if that counts for anything in the long run.

And in all this talk of the new coaches, I can't believe some of the coaches who are still watching from the press box. Gary Barnett, Walt Harris, and Glenn Mason come first to mind. These are guys who did a whole lot with very little and I'm surprised they are still out-of-doors. Barnett I can sort of understand, until I see Mike Price and Rick Neuheisel getting second chances.

The SEC...

... is still the SEC. One giant cluster-something that I can't make head or tail out of. But that's what makes it such compelling theater.

Georgia seems to be the class of the conference, but they also just seem like the next team in line. LSU lost Ryan Perrilloux, but their offense didn't really key on the quarterback anyway. Florida has talent, but Tebow is going to get the crap kicked out of him again (if Urban Meyer had any intention of handing off the ball to running backs, he would have done so by now). Auburn may have the most upside with their new offense, but I don't know that they have the players in place for an undefeated season. Alabama is a year away, in my estimation, but it is regrouping. The rest of the conference isn't terrifying, but they will post some upsets. This is going to be fun to watch.

The Big XII

I know Sam Bradford had a great freshman campaign, but there is that sophomore jinx thing to consider. Not that I think there is neccessarily some sort of curse, it's often more a case of a very talented player now trying to play within an offense instead of winging it. You can get by on raw talent as a freshman, but as a sophomore, you are expected to play within the scope of what the team is trying to do. That's a lot to take on in one year. And other teams have had an entire offseason to analyze that player's games and find tendencies. Those will show up upon further reflection and now that sophomore has to advance his game a long way if he wants to produce the same results. I think he can be very good, but he's going to have a tougher go.

I really like Colt McCoy, but he has been injury-prone. He's been taking a beating anyway and now his best rusher is gone. I think he's good as a passer, but I question his ability to stay healthy all year.

Missouri and Kansas made huge leaps forward, but don't forget that a lot of the teams they were playing were expecting the team from the year before, even when the Tigers and Jayhawks started winning. People are gearing up to play them this year and that means a tougher go every week. I expect some struggles.

Notre Dame

Charlie Weis is still learning how to be a college coach. In fact, he is still picking up some of the basics and sorting out his own coaching style. That's not an easy situation for a man coaching a team that everyone is targeting whether they are good or otherwise. And for all those great recruiting classes, I haven't seen much to show for them. He needs to start winning soon because the vultures are already circling.

The BCS National Championship Game

After the incredibly unpredictable last season, I expect something unpredictable again this year. That, of course, is exactly what everyone expects will happen: Georgia vs. Ohio State. Why? Well, why not?

The Pre-Season Rankings

With all that said, here's how I think things will shake out:

1. Georgia - With the number of starters they have returning and the fact that they should be the best team in the SEC this year, I think they will do what it takes to get to the BCS title game.
2. Ohio State - They seem to be the class of the Big Ten, though I'm concerned about a lot of issues. And I'll believe they can beat an SEC team in a bowl game when I see them beat an SEC team in a bowl game.
3. West Virginia - They are changing up their offense, which means that Pat White needs to learn the passing game. Could go either way, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
4. Clemson - Not so much an endorsement of Clemson as an indictment of the ACC. Lord Almighty, that conference sucks.
5. USC - They have issues, but the PAC-10 is not strong enough to take full advantage of them this year.
6. Oklahoma - Tough to get out of the Big XII South without getting dirty this year.
7. Auburn - I'm still a big fan of Tuberville, so I'm going to keep ranking Auburn highly in the preseason.
8. Missouri - It's going to be hard to keep up last year's pace with people wanting to beat them this year. But they are still the best team in the Big XII North.
9. UCLA - Rick Neuheisel's first year with the Bruins. Should be a good result before the usual decline into NCAA investigation, off-field trouble, a depleted talent base, and a mess that his successor will be forced to sort out.
10. Florida - I'm guessing that there will be at least a couple of teams that don’t get distracted from what they need to do to beat Florida: beat the snot out of the quarterback.
11. BYU - This year's BCS-busting darling. Unfortunately, Boise State made it impossible for the BCS-buster to sneak up on anybody in the bowl. So the final act could get ugly.
12. Texas - If Colt McCoy stays healthy all year, swap them with Oklahoma. Note that I didn't.
13. South Florida - There are good things happening in central Florida, where South Florida is located.
14. Some ACC team with 9 wins - Let's go with Virginia Tech on this.
15. Wisconsin - They still run that grind-it-out smashmouth game that is so effective against everybody. Too bad they don't have Barry Alvarez running it anymore, or they would use it to win bowl games.
16. Arizona State - Harder to sneak up on people this year. Though I could swap them with UCLA and still be happy.
17. LSU - They graduated last year's starting quarterback and evicted his successor. But a few plays aside last year, the quarterback wasn't asked to do a whole lot.
18. Penn State - I may have underranked them here. The loss of Anthony Morelli only means that Penn State will not return the best shot putter in football.
19. Alabama - Stronger, but they are still a hard egg with a thin shell. I think next year is the time to start putting them higher up.
20. Kansas - They lost some key players and one key coach. Add in the desire to beat last year's Orange Bowl winner and you have a regression year.
21. Michigan State - I liked what I saw from the Spartans last year, so I think they make some steps forward.
22. Connecticut - They play a solid brand of football and should get some good wins in the Big East.
23. Iowa - Call it a gut feeling. I think Iowa makes some noise this year. Probably more of an annoying beeping noise, rather than the loud, obnoxious, clanging noise they are hoping for.
24. Texas Tech - BCS buster my fanny. People talk about how good their defense was the last 5 games of last year; that is the first time they've strung that many good defensive games together.
25. Boise State - I enjoy watching Ian Johnson play football.

Notable Omissions

• Illinois - I will grant that they made a huge leap forward last year and they are a team to be reckoned with in the Big Ten this year. But the loss of Rashard Mendenhall and J Leman will hurt them badly. And when all the load of the offense falls on the running quarterback, he's going to get banged up. With a tough early test against Missouri and the fact that losses in the Big Ten count double in the polls, a 9-4/8-5 year leaves them out in the cold come final poll time.
• Michigan - Yes, I know that a lot of people are leaving them out of the early polls, but they are still Michigan. Thus, they are a notable exception. The new offense is going to have some growing pains. But Ohio State has been terrible against any real attempt to establish the run against them and they have yet to play defense against the no-huddle attack, so I have to mention that Michigan may very well beat the Buckeyes this year.
• Pittsburgh - Yes, they beat West Virginia last year. They are still poorly coached with only a handful of genuinely talented players -- despite what the recruiting pundits have been saying. I'm not buying the hype.
• Texas A&M - May be a regret of mine later in the year, supposing they actually attempt to use what they have. The way that they pissed away Jorvorskie Lane last year was the sign of a completely inept coaching staff -- especially in the bowl game against Penn State. They run straight ahead for 5-10 yards per carry until they get inside the 5. Then they try to run outside and they get stopped over and over and over again. I was livid at the Texas A&M coaching staff for that sort of incompetence -- and I was rooting for Penn State in that game. But my head also tells me that nobody wants to just line up and beat down the guy across the line from them, so I'm guessing the new staff will waste this year's talent too.
• Rutgers - This is a team that actually is willing to line up and beat down the team across from them. But with the loss of Ray Rice, they aren't going to have an identity. Except a desire to put the game into the hands of Mike Teel, for lack of any better ideas.
• The Pacific Northwest - Part of me thinks that Washington, Oregon, or Oregon State will be knocking some heads this year. But I can't say which one it might be, nor can I determine where they will end up. So I'll be fair and leave them all off of the list.
• Florida State - Drew Weatherford is still there?!
• Notre Dame - Not really all that notable, but I included Michigan in the "notable omission" list.
• Tennessee - I'd like to put them on there, but there are only so many spots in the top 25. With the graduation of Erik Ainge, they also have to break in a new QB. And they need to deal with Florida, Georgia, Alabama, UCLA, and Auburn. Sorry Vols fans, but no, it's not happening this year. That still doesn't mean that Phil Fulmer should go.
• Nebraska - Not sure what to make of the Bo Pelini hire. But I do know that he has nothing to work with, so it's not going to matter one iota.
• Colorado - They continue to have the idea that they should be a top-tier program, yet they were barely that even when Bill McCartney was working miracles for them. Dan Hawkins may be able to turn things around, but it's not going to happen this year.
• Wake Forest - I'm a big fan of Jim Grobe and I really wanted to put the Demon Deacons on the list, but when I really started looking at things, I just couldn't sneak them in there. They'll go bowling again, but they won't finish the year with a number in front of their name.